Kidney Week

Abstract: SA-PO401

Nomograms for Evaluating the Long-Term Prognostic Risk of IgA Nephropathy

Session Information

• CKD: Risk Factors for Incidence and Progression - III
  November 04, 2017 | Location: Hall H, Morial Convention Center
  Abstract Time: 10:00 AM - 10:00 AM

Category: Chronic Kidney Disease (Non-Dialysis)

• 301 CKD: Risk Factors for Incidence and Progression

Author

• Chen, Xiangmei, Chinese PLA General Hospital, Beijing, BEIJING, China

Xiangmei Chen,

Background

IgA nephropathy(IgAN) shows strong heterogeneity between individuals. The prognosis of IgAN is associated with lesions of Oxford classification and many clinical indicators. However, simple tools for evaluating the prognosis for clinician remains limited. Our objective was to develop an intuitive estimation tool for predicting the prognosis of IgAN.

Methods

Patients with IgAN diagnosed by renal biopsy at Chinese PLA General Hospital were retrospectively analyzed. The endpoint was a decrease in estimate Glomerular filtration rate (eGFR)≥50% or progression to end-stage renal disease(ESRD). Multivariate COX proportional hazards model with backward stepwise were performed. Using COX regression coefficients, nomograms was developed to predict the risk of endpoint events.

Results

In the modeling cohort, 48 among 274 patients developed into endpoints during 81 months followed- up. Nomograms was established , of which mesangial lesions, tubulointerstitial lesions as well as baseline 24h urinary protein content>1g, baseline eGFR<90ml/min/1.73m² and baseline mean arterial pressure were included. Additional 117 IgAN patients were retrospectively followed as validation cohort at a mean of 79 months.[s1] The nomograms showed good discrimination and goodness of fit in the modeling cohort (C-index=0.86，r²=0.75 ) and in the validation cohort (C-index=0.89，r²=0.72) respectively.

Conclusion

The nomograms involving clinical and pathological parameters can predict the prognosis of IgAN effectively and intuitively

nomograms for risk of endpoints

Funding

• Government Support - Non-U.S.