Kidney Week

Abstract: TH-PO1052

Effect of Universal CKD Care Programs on Life Expectancy: A Simulation Analysis from Taiwan

Session Information

• CKD: Epidemiology, Risk Factors, and Other Conditions
  November 06, 2025 | Location: Exhibit Hall, Convention Center
  Abstract Time: 10:00 AM - 12:00 PM

Category: CKD (Non-Dialysis)

• 2301 CKD (Non-Dialysis): Epidemiology, Risk Factors, and Prevention

Authors

• Lin, Ming-Yen, Kaohsiung Medical University Hospital, Kaohsiung, N.A., Taiwan

Ming-Yen Lin, PhD

• Chen, Jeng-Huei, National Chengchi University, Taipei City, Taiwan

Jeng-Huei Chen, PhD

• Hsu, Chih-cheng, National Health Research Institutes Institute of Population Health Sciences, Zhunan Township, N.A., Taiwan

Chih-cheng Hsu, MD, PhD, MPH

• Yang, Lii-Jia, Kaohsiung Municipal Cijin Hospital, Kaohsiung, Kaohsiung City, Taiwan

Lii-Jia Yang, MD

• Chung, Cheng-Yin, Pingtung Hospital, Pingtung, Taiwan

Cheng-Yin Chung, MD

• Wu, Ping-Hsun, Kaohsiung Medical University Hospital, Kaohsiung, N.A., Taiwan

Ping-Hsun Wu, MD, PhD

• Chiu, Yi-Wen, Kaohsiung Medical University Hospital, Kaohsiung, N.A., Taiwan

Yi-Wen Chiu, MD

• Hwang, Shang-Jyh, Kaohsiung Medical University Hospital, Kaohsiung, N.A., Taiwan

Shang-Jyh Hwang, MD

Group or Team Name

• The iH3 Research Group.

Background

The concept of chronic kidney disease (CKD) has been recognized for more than two decades. Understanding and comparing dynamic CKD glomerular filtration rate and albuminuria GA state transitions across different healthcare settings is critical for optimizing resource allocation and enhancing disease management. This study systematically collected CKD GA state transition probabilities from two nationwide programs in Taiwan and quantified age- and state-specific differences in life expectancy to inform more precise disease management strategies.

Methods

We estimated 5-year CKD GA state transition matrices and derived parameters of Weibull distributions for transition times using data from Taiwan’s universal screening and care programs (2012–2020 and 2012–2021, respectively). After validating the model, we simulated and compared age- and state-specific average life expectancies.

Results

Data included 4.0 million individuals with 6.1 million CKD state transitions in the screening program and 1.1 million patients with 3.7 million transitions in the care programs. Transition probabilities were estimated across 18 CKD GA states, end-stage kidney disease, and death. Simulations revealed that participation in care programs significantly increased average life expectancy—by 3 to 11 years—compared to screening alone. However, life expectancy gains were smaller among individuals with earlier CKD states and diminished progressively with increasing age.

Conclusion

The effect of CKD care programs on life expectancy varies by age and disease state. These findings underscore the importance of identifying factors influencing CKD progression and tailoring state- and age-specific interventions to optimize referral pathways and care delivery.

Funding

• Government Support – Non-U.S.

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

• doi: 10.1681/ASN.2025menb5658