Abstract: SA-OR004
Temporal Trends in AKI-Related Mortality Across 43 Countries, 1996-2021, with Projections up to 2050: A Global Time Series Analysis and Modelling Study
Session Information
- AKI Advances: Biomarkers, Outcomes, and Clinical Trials
November 08, 2025 | Location: Room 320A, Convention Center
Abstract Time: 05:00 PM - 05:10 PM
Category: Acute Kidney Injury
- 102 AKI: Clinical, Outcomes, and Trials
Authors
- Lee, Jeong-Yeun, Kyung Hee University Hospital, Dongdaemun-gu, Seoul, Korea (the Republic of)
- Yoon, Soo-Young, Kyung Hee University Hospital, Dongdaemun-gu, Seoul, Korea (the Republic of)
- Moon, Youngyoon, Kyung Hee University Hospital at Gangdong, Gangdong-gu, Seoul, Korea (the Republic of)
- Joo, Yoosun, Kyung Hee University Hospital at Gangdong, Gangdong-gu, Seoul, Korea (the Republic of)
- Jung, Su Woong, Kyung Hee University Hospital at Gangdong, Gangdong-gu, Seoul, Korea (the Republic of)
- Lee, Sangho, Kyung Hee University Hospital at Gangdong, Gangdong-gu, Seoul, Korea (the Republic of)
- Kim, Jinsug, Kyung Hee University Hospital, Dongdaemun-gu, Seoul, Korea (the Republic of)
- Jeong, Kyunghwan, Kyung Hee University Hospital, Dongdaemun-gu, Seoul, Korea (the Republic of)
- Hwang, Hyeon Seok, Kyung Hee University Hospital, Dongdaemun-gu, Seoul, Korea (the Republic of)
Background
Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a major global public health concern. However, a major challenge in addressing the AKI burden is the lack of global data on AKI-related mortality and its predictions, leaving significant limitations in understanding its trends over time. Therefore, we aimed to estimate AKI-related mortality rate trends and forecast future deaths.
Methods
This study analyzed age-standardized mortality trends related to acute kidney injury (AKI) across 43 countries from 1996 to 2021 using the World Health Organization Mortality Database, and projected future mortality through 2050. Temporal trends were visualized using locally weighted scatter plot smoother curves, while projections incorporated attributable risk factors from the Global Burden of Disease Study. The analysis also examined variations in AKI mortality by age, sex, income level (per World Bank country classification), and Human Development Index (HDI). In addition, a decomposition analysis was conducted to evaluate the relative contributions of population growth, aging, and epidemiological change to trends.
Results
Age-standardized AKI-related mortality per 1,000,000 people remained stable from 1996 to 2021 (10.47 [95% CI, 8.84–12.11] to 9.94 [8.32–11.57]). Overall mortality was lower in high-income countries (HICs) than in low-to-middle income countries (LMICs); however, HICs showed an upward trend (5.83 [4.21–7.46] to 7.3 [5.66–8.95]), while LMICs declined (19.66 [16.78–22.53] to 15.33 [12.37–18.29]). Similar patterns were observed by HDI. Mortality rose among older adults, especially in females, HICs, and countries with very high HDI, but declined in the young. Mortality is projected to rise (9.94 in 2021 to 11.36 in 2050), mainly due to population aging.This global study found that AKI-related mortality is rising in countries with higher socioeconomic status and aging populations, a trend expected to continue through 2050. The findings offer insights for reducing the global AKI burden.
Conclusion
This global time-series and modelling study found that countries with higher socioeconomic status and older populations have increasing trends in age-standardized AKI-related mortality, a trend projected to continue through 2050.
Funding
- Government Support – Non-U.S.