Kidney Week

Abstract: TH-PO443

Prediction Model for Cardiovascular Death Including Proteinuria and Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate in a General Population

Session Information

• Hypertension and CVD: Epidemiology, Risk Factors, Prevention
  October 25, 2018 | Location: Exhibit Hall, San Diego Convention Center
  Abstract Time: 10:00 AM - 12:00 PM

Category: Hypertension and CVD

• 1401 Hypertension and CVD: Epidemiology, Risk Factors, and Prevention

Authors

• Nishimoto, Masatoshi, Nara Medical University, Kashihara, Nara, Japan

Masatoshi Nishimoto,

• Tagawa, Miho, Nara Medical University, Kashihara, Nara, Japan

Miho Tagawa,

• Tsuruya, Kazuhiko, Nara Medical University, Kashihara, Nara, Japan

Kazuhiko Tsuruya,

• Matsui, Masaru, Nara Medical University, Kashihara, Nara, Japan

Masaru Matsui,

• Eriguchi, Masahiro, Nara Medical University, Kashihara, Nara, Japan

Masahiro Eriguchi,

• Samejima, Ken-ichi, Nara Medical University, Kashihara, Nara, Japan

Ken-ichi Samejima,

• Iseki, Kunitoshi, Steering Committee of Research on Design of the Comprehensive Health Care System for Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) Based on the Individual Risk Assessment by Specific Health Check, Fukushima, Japan

Kunitoshi Iseki,

• Iseki, Chiho, Steering Committee of Research on Design of the Comprehensive Health Care System for Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) Based on the Individual Risk Assessment by Specific Health Check, Fukushima, Japan

Chiho Iseki,

• Asahi, Koichi, Steering Committee of Research on Design of the Comprehensive Health Care System for Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) Based on the Individual Risk Assessment by Specific Health Check, Fukushima, Japan

Koichi Asahi,

• Yamagata, Kunihiro, Steering Committee of Research on Design of the Comprehensive Health Care System for Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) Based on the Individual Risk Assessment by Specific Health Check, Fukushima, Japan

Kunihiro Yamagata,

• Konta, Tsuneo, Steering Committee of Research on Design of the Comprehensive Health Care System for Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) Based on the Individual Risk Assessment by Specific Health Check, Fukushima, Japan

Tsuneo Konta,

• Fujimoto, Shouichi, Steering Committee of Research on Design of the Comprehensive Health Care System for Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) Based on the Individual Risk Assessment by Specific Health Check, Fukushima, Japan

Shouichi Fujimoto,

• Narita, Ichiei, Steering Committee of Research on Design of the Comprehensive Health Care System for Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) Based on the Individual Risk Assessment by Specific Health Check, Fukushima, Japan

Ichiei Narita,

• Kasahara, Masato, Steering Committee of Research on Design of the Comprehensive Health Care System for Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) Based on the Individual Risk Assessment by Specific Health Check, Fukushima, Japan

Masato Kasahara,

• Shibagaki, Yugo, Steering Committee of Research on Design of the Comprehensive Health Care System for Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) Based on the Individual Risk Assessment by Specific Health Check, Fukushima, Japan

Yugo Shibagaki,

• Moriyama, Toshiki, Steering Committee of Research on Design of the Comprehensive Health Care System for Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) Based on the Individual Risk Assessment by Specific Health Check, Fukushima, Japan

Toshiki Moriyama,

• Kondo, Masahide, Steering Committee of Research on Design of the Comprehensive Health Care System for Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) Based on the Individual Risk Assessment by Specific Health Check, Fukushima, Japan

Masahide Kondo,

• Watanabe, Tsuyoshi, Steering Committee of Research on Design of the Comprehensive Health Care System for Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) Based on the Individual Risk Assessment by Specific Health Check, Fukushima, Japan

Tsuyoshi Watanabe,

Background

There are several prediction models for coronary or cardiovascular (CV) events, some of which include estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). However, there has been no prediction model for CV death that includes proteinuria and eGFR.

Methods

This was a longitudinal cohort study. Inclusion criteria was subjects aged 40–74 years in a Japanese nationwide Specific Health Checkup database in 2008. Exclusion criteria were subjects with missing data. The exposures of interest were demographics, comorbidities, blood pressure, laboratory data, and lifestyle factors. Outcome variable was CV death. Subjects were randomly assigned to derivation and validation cohorts by 2:1 ratio. Points for prediction model were determined based on regression coefficients derived from the Cox proportional hazards model in the derivation cohort. The model was validated by Kaplan-Meier curves and calibration plot in the validation cohort.

Results

Among 295,297 subjects, data for 120,823 were available for analysis (80,549 and 40,274 in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively). During a mean follow-up of 3.6 years, there were 204 and 106 CV deaths in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. Proteinuria and eGFR were significantly associated with CV death and were included in the model. Other variables included in our prediction model were shown in the figure. Kaplan-Meier curves of 3 risk groups defined by points in the prediction model were matched between the derivation and the validation cohorts, and calibration plot was well calibrated (y = 1.00x, R² = 0.90).

Conclusion

Our prediction model for CV death including proteinuria and eGFR was well calibrated. External validation in another cohort is required before clinical use.