Abstract: SA-PO1236
Rising Incidence-to-Mortality Gap in Renal Malignancies: A 22-Year Population-Based Study
Session Information
- Onconephrology: Epidemiological Trends, Risk Stratification, and Clinical Outcomes
October 24, 2026 | Location: Exhibit Hall A, Convention Center
Abstract Time: 10:00 AM - 12:00 PM
Category: Onconephrology
- 1600 Onconephrology
Authors
- Lak, Muhammad Ali, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, New York, United States
- Tellez Garcia, Juan Miguel, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, New York, United States
- Zia, Muhammad Hassaan, Allama Iqbal Medical College, Lahore, Punjab, Pakistan
- Rafique, Muhammad Umar, Combined Military Hospital Lahore, Lahore, Punjab, Pakistan
- Ismail, Mariam, Delta University for Science and Technology, Belkas, Dakahlia Governorate, Egypt
- Satheesh, Manisha, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, New York, United States
Background
Renal malignancies have shown rising incidence, largely driven by increased imaging and incidental detection. Despite earlier diagnosis and intervention, mortality reductions have been modest, raising concerns about overdiagnosis. The incidence-to-mortality ratio (IMR) reflects survival trends but remains poorly characterized. We evaluated national trends in incidence, mortality, and IMR from 1999–2021.
Methods
We analyzed incidence and mortality data for kidney and renal pelvis malignancies from the CDC WONDER Cancer Statistics database (1999-2021). Age-adjusted rates per 100,000 population were calculated and stratified by sex. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to calculate AAPC values, while the Kendall’s Tau correlation analysis for the incidence-to-mortality ratio was performed using SPSS software
Results
A total of 302,310 deaths occurred due to malignancies involving the kidney and renal pelvis between 1999 and 2021. Overall, the Kendall's tau value was 0.937 (p = < 0.001), indicating a statistically significant increase in the incidence-to-mortality ratio over the years. The AAMR for nephrological malignancies-related deaths was 3.9 during this time period. The overall AAMR decreased from 4.1 to 3.4 from 1999 to 2021 (AAPC: -0.78). The overall AAIR increased from 12.2 to 17.8 during 1999 to 2021 (AAPC: 1.74). Males and females showed a similar statistically significant increasing trend in the incidence-to-mortality ratio (males: tau = 0.927; p = < 0.001, females: tau = 0.905; p = < 0.001) from 1999 to 2021. The male population had considerably higher AAMRs (males: 5.6, females: 2.5) and AAIRs (males: 21.8, females: 11.2) than the female population throughout the study period. The AAMR for males decreased from 5.9 in 1999 to 5.0 in 2021 (AAPC: -0.67), while the AAMR for females decreased from 2.7 to 2.1 during the same period (AAPC: -1.37). The AAIR for both genders increased during the study period. Males had an AAIR of 16.8 in 1999, which rose to 23.9 in 2021 (AAPC: 1.65), while females' AAIR increased from 8.6 to 12.3 (AAPC: 1.66).
Conclusion
The widening incidence-to-mortality gap suggests improved outcomes alongside a growing burden of indolent disease. These findings emphasize the need for better risk stratification to minimize overtreatment while preserving oncologic outcomes.