Abstract: FR-PO0979
Growing Burden of CKD Mortality in US Women: Demographic Disparities and Projection up to 2045
Session Information
- Women's Health and Kidney Diseases
October 23, 2026 | Location: Exhibit Hall A, Convention Center
Abstract Time: 10:00 AM - 12:00 PM
Category: Women's Health and Kidney Diseases
- 2100 Women's Health and Kidney Diseases
Authors
- Seth, Sukriti, University of Central Florida College of Medicine/HCA Healthcare GME Consortium,, Ocala,, Florida, United States
- Kodali, Naga Anvesh, University of Central Florida College of Medicine/HCA Healthcare GME Consortium,, Ocala,, Florida, United States
- Desai, Hardik, AB Plus Multispecialty Hospital, Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India
- Nwakoby, Izuchukwu E., University of Central Florida College of Medicine/HCA Healthcare GME Consortium,, Ocala,, Florida, United States
Background
Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a growing contributor to female mortality in the United States, yet sex-specific national trends across the most recent quarter-century and forward-looking projections remain underreported.
Methods
We queried CDC WONDER (Bridged-Race 1999–2020; Single-Race 2018–2024) for deaths assigned ICD-10 N18.0–N18.9 as underlying cause among U.S. females. Annual percent change (APC) was estimated by log-linear regression on counts and rates, overall and stratified by region, state, urbanization, ten-year age group, race, Hispanic origin, and place of death. Deaths and AAMR to 2045 were projected by auto-selected ARIMA (primary) and log-linear extrapolation (sensitivity).
Results
From 1999 to 2024, annual female CKD deaths rose from 7,146 to 18,284 (+155.9%; APC +4.24%, 95% CI 3.93–4.56) and AAMR from 4.4 to 7.4 per 100,000 (+68.2%; APC +2.43%, 95% CI 2.17–2.69), with a 7.4–7.8 plateau since 2021. Steepest increases occurred in women aged 85+ (APC +5.52%), Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islanders (+9.38%), Hispanic women (+6.45%), and residents of Utah (+9.22%), Alaska (+8.50%), and Iowa (+7.22%). Place-of-death analysis revealed a transition from inpatient to community settings: hospice facility (APC +18.71%) and decedent's home (+8.71%) rose sharply, while medical-facility-dead-on-arrival declined (−3.97%). ARIMA forecasts 27,640 deaths and AAMR 9.9 by 2045; log-linear gives 48,216 deaths and AAMR 13.4.
Conclusion
Female CKD mortality has more than doubled since 1999, with widening disparities by age, race/ethnicity, and geography, and an accelerating shift toward home and hospice deaths. Projections indicate continued growth through 2045, underscoring the need for sex-specific CKD prevention.