ASN's Mission

ASN leads the fight to prevent, treat, and cure kidney diseases throughout the world by educating health professionals and scientists, advancing research and innovation, communicating new knowledge, and advocating for the highest quality care for patients.

learn more

Contact ASN

1401 H St, NW, Ste 900, Washington, DC 20005


The Latest on Twitter

Kidney Week

Abstract: PO0472

Estimating Long-Term Survival Rates in Patients with Anaemia of Non-Dialysis-Dependent CKD: An Expert Elicitation

Session Information

Category: Anemia and Iron Metabolism

  • 200 Anemia and Iron Metabolism


  • Garcia Sanchez, Juan Jose, AstraZeneca PLC, Cambridge, Cambridgeshire, United Kingdom
  • Ouwens, Johannes Nicolaas Martinus, AstraZeneca AB, Mölndal, Sweden
  • Willigers, Bart J.a., AstraZeneca PLC, Cambridge, Cambridgeshire, United Kingdom
  • Briggs, Andrew, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, London, United Kingdom
  • Darlington, Oliver, Health Economics and Outcomes Research Ltd, Cardiff, United Kingdom
  • Bhatt, Purav Rahulkumar, AstraZeneca, Wilmington, Delaware, United States
  • Wittbrodt, Eric T., AstraZeneca, Wilmington, Delaware, United States
  • Sinsakul, Marvin, AstraZeneca, Wilmington, Delaware, United States
  • Grandy, Susan, AstraZeneca, Wilmington, Delaware, United States
  • L Heerspink, Hiddo Jan, The University of Groningen, Groningen, Netherlands
  • Pollock, Carol A., The University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
  • Pecoits-Filho, Roberto, Pontificia Universidade Catolica do Parana, Curitiba, PR, Brazil
  • Tangri, Navdeep, The University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada
  • Kovesdy, Csaba P., The University of Tennessee Health Science Center, Memphis, Tennessee, United States
  • Wheeler, David C., University College London, London, London, United Kingdom

Clinical trials for the treatment of anemia of CKD provide mortality data. Cost-effectiveness analyses of new treatments require survival extrapolations over a lifetime time horizon. An expert elicitation was conducted to obtain estimates of long-term survival probabilities for patients with anemia of non-dialysis dependent (NDD) CKD.


Literature searches were used to identify clinical trials and observational studies that included patients with anemia of NDD CKD aged ≥ 18 years, that had > 500 participants per study arm and that reported all-cause death incidence and/or survival Kaplan–Meier (KM) curves. Study data were extracted and collated. KM curves were extrapolated to 20 years by calculating standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) compared to age- and sex-adjusted general population lifetables. A summary of relevant data was presented to six CKD experts. After an elicitation training, the experts made a judgment on the 10th, 50th and 90th percentile of 10- and 20-year survival of patients with anemia of NDD CKD. The individual judgments were combined into an overall assessment.


From the literature, all-cause death incidence in patients with anemia of NDD CKD was 3.5–39.4 per 100 patient-years (five studies). From SMR-extrapolated KM curves, estimated survival at 10 and 20 years was 30–57% and < 1–13%, respectively (three studies; median age of 80 and 68 years in two studies, and mean age of 66 in the third). The aggregated elicited survival values were 50% (80% confidence interval [CI]: 34–64%) at 10 years and 21% (80% CI: 8–36%) at 20 years.


The elicited survival estimates could be used to model long-term survival and complement results from other extrapolation methods to inform and validate cost-effectiveness analyses. Long-term survival extrapolations are also likely to support patients and physicians with treatment decisions.


  • Commercial Support