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Kidney Week

Abstract: PO0524

Estimating the Future Burden of CKD Through Microsimulation Methods

Session Information

Category: CKD (Non-Dialysis)

  • 2101 CKD (Non-Dialysis): Epidemiology, Risk Factors, and Prevention


  • Retat, Lise, HealthLumen, London, United Kingdom
  • Xu, Michael, HealthLumen, London, United Kingdom
  • Webber, Laura, HealthLumen, London, United Kingdom
  • Cabrera, Claudia S., AstraZeneca AB, Sodertalje, Södermanlands län, Sweden
  • SOrstadius, Elisabeth, AstraZeneca AB, Sodertalje, Södermanlands län, Sweden
  • Nolan, Stephen, AstraZeneca PLC, Cambridge, Cambridgeshire, United Kingdom
  • Garcia Sanchez, Juan Jose, AstraZeneca PLC, Cambridge, Cambridgeshire, United Kingdom

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a debilitating and costly condition, impacting over 10% of people globally. Early diagnosis and proactive management could potentially mitigate the rates of progression to end stage renal disease. Understanding the future trajectory of CKD prevalence, progression, outcomes and the related economic burden are important considerations for public health and policy planning. This study estimates the epidemiological and cost burden of CKD with an emphasis on high-risk populations with macroalbuminuria, type 2 diabetes (T2D) and/or heart failure (HF), from 2020 to 2025.


A patient-level microsimulation was developed to estimate the epidemiological and economic burden of CKD in the UK. KDIGO 2012 recommendations were used to categorise patients according to eGFR and albuminuria using the Health Survey of England extrapolated to the UK population. The future prevalence and healthcare costs for the CKD population, as well as for subpopulations – macroalbuminura , T2D, HF – were estimated. Finally, “current practice” management scenario was compared to an early detection and proactive scenario.


By 2025, CKD prevalence in the UK is expected to grow by 11% from ~9.1M to 10.2M corresponding to a £4B (18%) increase in annual cost from £18B, of which, £0.58B is incurred due to macroalbuminuria where prevalence is projected to reach 860,000 by 2025. Within the macroalbuminuria population, costs were comparable between patients with (390,000; £0.31B) and without (465,000; £0.27B) T2D. However, costs for patients with macroalbuminuria were 3-times higher than for CKD patients with HF (£0.11B, 140,000). Early identification and proactive management of patients with CKD and macroalbuminuria resulted in a cumulative £0.65B direct healthcare cost saving by 2025.


This model predicts that CKD poses a serious public health threat. The overall epidemiological burden for patients with macroalbuminuria was comparable between patients with and without T2D. Early detection along with proactive treatment may reduce CKD progression and more directly improve patients’ quality of life while also reducing the long-term economic burden of CKD.


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