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Abstract: PO1123

Estimation and Prediction of Prevalence of Patients Receiving Dialysis in China Based on Claims Data

Session Information

Category: Dialysis

  • 701 Dialysis: Hemodialysis and Frequent Dialysis


  • Yang, Chao, Peking University First Hospital, Beijing, Beijing, China
  • Wang, Jinwei, Peking University First Hospital, Beijing, Beijing, China
  • Zhang, Luxia, Peking University First Hospital, Beijing, China
  • Zhao, Ming Hui, Peking University First Hospital, Beijing, Beijing, China

Group or Team Name

  • China Kidney Disease Network (CK-NET) Work Group

The national prevalence of end-stage kidney disease in China has not been well studied. We aimed to estimate the prevalence of patients receiving dialysis and predict the trend using claims data in order to provide evidence for developing prevention strategies.


Medical claims data from Jan 1, 2013 to Dec 31, 2017 were extracted from a large claims database, which used a two-stage sampling design to obtain a national sample of insured population. Patients receiving maintenance dialysis, including hemodialysis (HD) and peritoneal dialysis (PD), were identified according to medical billings and ICD-10 codes. The age-adjusted prevalence and number of dialysis patients were calculated stratified by year and gender. The Verhulst model was used to predict the short-term prevalence from 2018 to 2025.


From 2013 to 2017, the age-adjusted prevalence of dialysis patients increased from 252.46 per million population (PMP) to 419.23 PMP. In 2017, the age-adjusted prevalence of HD and PD was 384.32 PMP and 34.91 PMP, respectively, and the total number of dialysis patients in China was estimated to be 581,055. The overall trend in the predicted prevalence of dialysis patients was increasing. The predicted prevalence was 533.61 PMP in 2020 and 623.49 PMP in 2025, and the corresponding number of patients was 743,304 and 865,704, respectively.


We have firstly made an attempt to assess the prevalence of dialysis patients in China and establish a national surveillance system based on claims data. It is urgent to formulate prevention and control strategies to reduce the escalating burden of kidney diseases.

Figure 1. Prediction curve of prevalence and number of dialysis patients in China from 2013 to 2025
Note: The numbers and columns in the figure show predicted prevalence and predicted number of patients using grey Verhulst model, respectively.
Abbreviation: PMP, per million population.


  • Government Support - Non-U.S.