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Kidney Week

Abstract: TH-PO399

Forecasting Future Growth in CKD in the Irish Population: 2005-2024

Session Information

Category: CKD (Non-Dialysis)

  • 2101 CKD (Non-Dialysis): Epidemiology, Risk Factors, and Prevention

Authors

  • Stack, Austin G., Division of Nephrology, University Hospital Limerick, Limerick, Ireland
  • Mellotte, George S., St James Hospital, Dublin, Ireland
  • Couchoud, Cécile, Biomedicine Agency, Saint Denis La Plaine, France
  • Browne, Leonard, University of Limerick, Limerick, Ireland
Background

Although chronic kidney disease (CKD) is common in the Irish health system, few data exist on longitudinal trends and future growth. To better inform strategic planning of renal services, we determined future trends in CKD burden in the Irish population.

Methods

Data from the National Kidney Disease Surveillance System (NKSS) determined age and sex standardised prevalence of CKD among adults > 18 yrs, in Midwest and Northwest regions from 2005-2014. CKD was defined as eGFR <60 ml/min per 1.73 m2 using the CKD-EPI equation. Four forecasting models (naive with trend, exponential smoothing, Holt’s linear trend, and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA)) estimated future prevalence of CKD beyond 2015 to 2024. The population at risk was derived from national census data in 2006 and 2011.

Results

Study included 478,251 participants, average age 55.5 (18.8) years with 53% female. From 2005 to 2014, overall prevalence increased significantly from 6.72% (95% CI 6.71-6.74%) to 7.73% (7.71-7.46%), with significantly greater increases for men [5.81 (5.78,5.85) to 7.28 (7.25,7.32), p< 0.001)] than for women [7.62% (7.59,7.66%) to 8.15 (8.12,8.19)].The largest growth occurred in the elderly age 75+, p-value <0.001, while prevalence fell in all other age groups, p value <0.001 for each. By 2024, overall prevalence was predicted to increase to 9.20 % (95% PI 8.66, 9.75); men 9.40% (95% PI: 8.81, 9.99); and women 9.06 % (95% PI: 8.31, 9.80).

Conclusion

In line with current trends, we forecast continued growth in CKD burden up to 2024. These are driven principally by increases in the elderly. Given the risk implications on rates of kidney failure, morbidity and mortality, actionable policies that promote better CKD prevention and treatment strategies should be vigorously pursued.

Funding

  • Government Support - Non-U.S.