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Abstract: FR-PO937

Colombian Validation of the Kidney Failure Risk Equation with Four Variables

Session Information

Category: CKD (Non-Dialysis)

  • 2301 CKD (Non-Dialysis): Epidemiology, Risk Factors, and Prevention


  • Sanabria, Mauricio, Baxter Renal Care Services, Bogota, Bogota DC, Colombia
  • Larrarte, Carolina, Baxter Renal Care Services, Bogota, Bogota DC, Colombia
  • Vesga, Jasmin, Baxter Renal Care Services, Bogota, Bogota DC, Colombia
  • Ardila, Freddy, Baxter Renal Care Services, Bogota, Bogota DC, Colombia
  • Aldana Miranda, Fabiola Andrea, Baxter Renal Care Services, Bogota, Bogota DC, Colombia
  • Perea, Delia, Baxter Renal Care Services, Bogota, Bogota DC, Colombia

Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) programs need to identify patients at risk of progression. Our objective is to evaluate the performance of this 4 variables model in the Colombian population where this risk model has not yet been validated.


Historical cohort of patients with stage 3, 4 and 5 CKD, adults, with no history of dialysis or kidney transplantation and with a two-year follow-up, belonging to the Renal Care Services Baxter Colombia clinic network. The performance model was evaluated using concordance index and the area under the time-dependent ROC curve, with the nearest neighbor method, as well as the sensitivity and specificity. The degree of agreement between the observed outcome and the probabilities predicted by the model using the Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic.


A total of 5477 patients were included, the mean age was 72 years, and the mean baseline eGFR was 36 ml/min/1.73 m2. The rate of admission to dialysis therapy was 3 events per-100 patient years. See Figure 1.
Sensitivity 0.938 and specificity 0.757, with the area under the ROC curve 0.92. Harrell C statistic was 0.88 per total population and >65 year was 0.93. The validation of the model showed a good calibration, see Figure 2.


In this Colombian cohort, the kidney failure risk equation with 4 variables has excellent calibration and discrimination, therefore its use is recommended in the routine follow-up of these CKD prevention programs.


  • Commercial Support – Baxter Renal Care Services