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Abstract: FR-PO942

Modest Reductions in Kidney Function and Adverse Outcomes in Young Adults

Session Information

Category: CKD (Non-Dialysis)

  • 2301 CKD (Non-Dialysis): Epidemiology, Risk Factors, and Prevention


  • Hussain, Junayd, University of Ottawa School of Epidemiology and Public Health, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
  • Canney, Mark, University of Ottawa School of Epidemiology and Public Health, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
  • Elliott, Meghan J., University of Calgary Cumming School of Medicine, Calgary, Alberta, Canada
  • Hundemer, Gregory L., University of Ottawa School of Epidemiology and Public Health, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
  • Tangri, Navdeep, University of Manitoba Max Rady College of Medicine, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada
  • Sood, Manish M., Institute of Clinical and Evaluative Sciences (ICES), University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada

Whether modest declines in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR below age-expected values) in younger adults are associated with adverse outcomes is unknown. We aim to estimate the association of an early eGFR decline with adverse outcomes by age group (18-39, 40-49, 50-65 years).


We included 8.7 million adults (aged 18-65) with ≥1 eGFR value using linked healthcare datasets in Ontario from January 2008-March 2020. The association of eGFR categories from <60 to >120 mL/min/1.73m2 and adverse outcomes (death, cardiovascular outcomes, end-stage kidney disease) was examined using adjusted Cox models. Comparisons were relative to age normalized measured GFR categories (100-110 mL/min for 18-39, 90-100 mL/min for 40-49, 80-90 mL/min for 50-65).


The mean age, eGFR and median follow up were 41 years, 104 mL/min and 9.2 years, respectively. 17.3%, 18.9%, and 17.7% had an eGFR below normal for ages 18-39, 40-49, and 50-65, respectively. The risk of an adverse event increased in a stepwise manner with eGFR values below the referent and occurred at higher eGFR values in those 18 to 39 [eGFR 70-80, age 18-39: incidence 4.37 events per 1000 person-years [p-y], HR 1.54(1.46-1.61); age 40-49: incidence 9.78 per 1000p-y, HR 1.18(1.15-1.21); age 50-65: incidence 24.0 per 1000p-y, HR 1.11(1.10-1.12)] (see Figure). Results persisted for each outcome individually, and after using repeated eGFR, using a common referent, and adjusting for multiple covariates.


Young adults (18-39) with an early eGFR decline were at a higher risk of adverse events and this occurred at higher eGFR levels relative to middle-aged and older adults.

Figure: Incidence rates (events per 1000 person-years) and adjusted hazard ratios (HRs, 95% CI) for any adverse outcome (first of all-cause mortality, cardiovascular outcomes, end-stage kidney disease) relative to age-specific eGFR reference ranges, by age-group.